EnabledMetals News Insights

Relative Platinum and Palladium Prices to See Convergence in 2023

The relative prices of platinum and palladium have seen reversal of fortunes in history which have led to one surpassing the other in price terms. Palladium has been the more expensive metal since October 2017 due to continued consumption in automotive/pollution control catalysts in internal combustion engines (ICE) which in 2022 accounted for 84% of gross demand. (Johnson Matthey, 2022)

Platinum’s fortunes in automotive have been disproportionately affected by the switch to electric mobility although some of the losses are being partially offset by a switch from the more expensive palladium to platinum in gasoline vehicles (a move that the auto industry lived to regret back in 2001 when palladium prices suddenly eclipsed those of platinum before returning to almost historic lows two years later).

Some excitement is being seen in the market for platinum as the price differential between Pt-Pd continues to close, in part driven by an end to palladium supply restrictions which saw palladium reach an all-time-high of $3,000 per troy oz in 2021 and spikes above $2,500 per troy oz in 2022.

The London Bullion Metal Association (LBMA) is forecasting a double-digit percentage rise in platinum prices in 2023 to around $1,080 per tr oz and a softening of palladium prices. The basis for the prediction includes the tightening automotive legislation in China which will force an increase in platinum loadings on ICE exhaust catalysts as well as an uptick in production of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC). Meanwhile Wilma Swarts of Metal Focus gave her views on palladium’s fortunes with the compound effects of improved supply from both primary and secondary (recycled) sources; thrifting in the automotive catalyst market; slow electronics demand and displacement of ICE vehicles by electric mobility pointing to an average 2023 price of $1,810 per troy oz. Other analysts point to a broader range from $1,500 to $2,180 per tr oz. (Bullion Vault, 2023)

Longer-term the prospects for palladium based on demand fundamentals would look to favour platinum as the main metal for PEMFC and PEM water electrolyser (PEMEL) catalysts. Enabled Future Limited has looked at mapping potential new chemical demand for palladium and notes the continued research and innovation (R&I) into the use of palladium in PEMFC which would allow the dynamic of Pt:Pd seen in ICE vehicles to be mirrored to some degree in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV).

For a current view, please join us at the forthcoming Hydrogen Tech Expo in Telford on 30th March 2023 where we will have a stand (M12) and will be presenting on “Critical Resource Management for Fuel Cells and Electrolysers”. (Enabled Future Limited, 2023)

Palladium. Retrieved from Bullion Vault: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/platinum-price-palladium-2023-forecast-021520233
Enabled Future Limited. (2023, February 17). Enabled Future CEO to Present at Hydrogen Tech Expo, Telford. Retrieved from Enabled Future : https://enabledfuture.com/enabled-future-limited-ceo-to-present-at-hydrogen-tech-expo-telford/
Johnson Matthey. (2022, May 16). Johnson Matthey publishes latest PGM Market Report 2022. Retrieved from Johnson Matthey: https://matthey.com/pgm-market-report-2022

Nearly 100,000 catalytic converters stolen in three years

Clearly from recent news, catalytic converter thefts are on the increase and becoming an enormous headache for car owners and law enforcement agencies alike. Over 100,000 catalytic converters have been stolen in the UK alone during 2020-2023 according to data gathered by OPAL, the National Intelligence Unit for Serious Organised Acquisitive Crime, UK. Increasing precious metal prices have exacerbated the problem. Each converter can command as much as £600 on the black market but cost the car owner more than twice this to repair the damage and to replace the catalyst. Catalytic converter crime theft is estimated to cost the UK in the region of £350 million per year.

The crime figures are only those where the crime was reported, and it is thought that the real numbers could be even higher. (Rashid, 2023) The UK has a dedicated metal crime unit headed up by Superintendent Mark Cleland which is working to gather more intelligence and information on converter theft and other metal-theft crimes. OPAL SOAC is also working in partnership with public and private organisations to tackle serious organised crime incorporating metal thefts. (NPPC, n.d.)

Autocatalysts are legitimately recycled by a number of companies globally including Hensel Recycling in Germany. The catalysts are removed from their outer casings and crushed. (See Figure 1 below). The powder obtained can be sent to downstream refiners and processed via pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical routes to recover the PGMs.

Source: Sky News 01/01/23

NPPC. (n.d.). OPAL – National Intelligence Unit for Serious Organised Acquisitive Crime. Retrieved from NPPC Police: https://www.npcc.police.uk/NationalPolicing/OPALNationalIntelligenceUnitforSeriousOrganisedAcq.aspx
Rashid, I. (2023, January 1). Nearly 100,000 catalytic converters stolen in three years, data reveals. Retrieved from Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/nearly-100-000-catalytic-converters-stolen-in-three-years-data-reveals-12777355#:~:text=Almost%20100%2C000%20thefts%20of%20catalytic,600%20on%20the%20black%20market.

Can the lithium price improve the outlook for LFP recycling?

Chinese Lithium carbonate prices in China hit an all-time high of CNY 572,500 per ton ($78,400) in November, up almost 100% on the same time the previous year according to Trading Economics. The price rises are put down to a perfect storm of strong demand in mobility applications and tight supply. But is it all bad? One of the key reasons cited for not switching to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries – which save on mining of critical raw materials including nickel and cobalt – is their low recycle value. In general, LFP recycling requires a processing fee paid by the equipment producer to the upstream recycler, with the “black mass” then sold onto downstream suppliers with hydrometallurgical facilities, who make a small mark up on the metal’s recovery. Rising lithium values could help to raise these margins enough for processing fees to be reduced, and in turn encourage circularity in the battery industry outside of nickel-based battery chemistries. The lithium deficit (anticipated to be in the order of millions of tons without sufficient investment) is another matter, but for now the rising prices could precipitate the development of more recovery and this can only be a good thing for the supply security and sustainability of the market going forwards.